Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc.): 41 (47)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
I was not expecting this, at least not so soon, but now we have a public poll that shows Jeff Merkley with a very small lead over Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. (Rasmussen also now gives alternate results with ‘leaners’ pushed: if so, the race is tied at 46/46.)
Smith’s favorability numbers have also dropped since the last poll. Last time, 58% of voters viewed him either very or somewhat favorably; this month it’s 53%. Coupled with a re-elect number well below 50%, and with only a 3% edge among men, that all spells trouble for Gordo. Maybe all the lashing himself to the mast of the Good Ship Obama isn’t helping him much.
Look at these new Kansas numbers:
Roberts 57 (48)
Slattery 30 (39)
In May in was 52-40. This is becoming a pattern with Rasmussen. One poll looks excellent (NC, TX ect) the next is a massive swing away from us. After what he pulled with releasing Clinton and Gore numbers versus McCain I am coming to believe he is up to something.
Obama has a 10% lead over McCain according to pollster. In 2004, Kerry won by 4%. This will certainly help a bit.
Oh I love when Rasmussen just has a huge slew of polls to report, it makes my week so much better.
I want to see a new North Carolina poll. Now that Dole is no longer running tv ads, I expect Hagan to narrow the lead Dole was enjoying before by a bit. I’d say that is probably a 5-8 point race right now.
I think that if were tied going into election day, we’ll win. Obama will win both states handily and I think his coattails will be enough to get both of these guys elected. Basically, if Rasmussen’s most recent polls of Minnesota and Oregon still stand come election day, I think we can say hello to Senators Merkley and Franken.
Never trust one poll, however, if these numbers can be backed up by other polls from other companies, it would be huge.